{"id":142,"date":"2016-08-06T04:02:50","date_gmt":"2016-08-06T04:02:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/?page_id=142"},"modified":"2016-08-08T01:05:07","modified_gmt":"2016-08-08T01:05:07","slug":"songs","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/songs\/","title":{"rendered":"Songs"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”black”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_icon type=”entypo” color=”black” size=”xl” align=”center” css_animation=”appear”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”black”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

MODELVILLE\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\n

Scratch\u2019n out likelihoods,<\/p>\n

watchin\u2019 inferences fail;<\/p>\n

All of those parameters not backed up by data.<\/p>\n

Programming models while swilling 90 schilling.<\/p>\n

Smell those assumptions–<\/p>\n

They’re beginnin’ to spoil.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Wasted away again in Modelville,<\/p>\n

Searchin’ for a last bit of data.<\/p>\n

Some people claim that there’s a model to blame,<\/p>\n

But I know it’s my data\u2019s fault.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Don’t know the reason,<\/p>\n

inferences are not pleas\u2019n<\/p>\n

With nothing to show but this new posterior.<\/p>\n

But it’s a real beauty,<\/p>\n

A Bayesian cutie, how it got here<\/p>\n

I haven’t a clue.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Wasted away again in Modelville,<\/p>\n

Searchin’ for a last bit of data.<\/p>\n

Some people claim that there’s a model to blame,<\/p>\n

Now I think,– hell it could be the data at fault.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I blew out my prior,<\/p>\n

Slipped on a P-value;<\/p>\n

Shrunk my MLEs, had to converge on back home.<\/p>\n

But there’s placebo in the blender,<\/p>\n

And soon it will render<\/p>\n

That worthless null that helps me hang on.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Wasted away again in Modelville<\/p>\n

Searchin’ for a last bit of data.<\/p>\n

Some people claim that there’s a model to blame,<\/p>\n

But I know, it’s your data at fault.<\/p>\n

Yes, and some people claim there\u2019s a model to blame, but I know it’s your data at fault.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– Adapted by Ken Burnham (Oct. 24, 2008) from MARGARITAVILLE by Jimmy Buffett<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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The Testers –\u00a0Hotel Small P-value\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n
\n

In a dark crowded stat lab, algorithms fill my head,<\/p>\n

sound of keyboards beckoning me to bed.<\/p>\n

Then up on the screen, I saw shimmering nulls.<\/p>\n

My data summarized by statistics not disguised,<\/p>\n

I went to stop for the night.<\/p>\n

But there they were on the monitor,<\/p>\n

P-values! – how they did glower.<\/p>\n

I was thinking to myself,<\/p>\n

\u2019this could be real or just lack of power.\u2019<\/p>\n

Then Student lit a candle, and Fisher showed the way<\/p>\n

There were voices down the corridor,<\/p>\n

I thought I heard them say…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Welcome to the hotel Small P-Value.<\/p>\n

Such a lovely place,<\/p>\n

for ongoing disgrace.<\/p>\n

Plenty of room at the hotel Small P-Value.<\/p>\n

Any time of year, you\u2019ll find significance here.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The method is logically-twisted, it got the frequentist bends.<\/p>\n

It has a lot of small -small values, that it calls the ends.<\/p>\n

How they dwell on the page, sweet inferences all.<\/p>\n

Some starred to remember, not small ones to forget.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So I called the statistician, here\u2019s my plea,<\/p>\n

\u2019please bring a bigger alpha.\u2019<\/p>\n

He said, \u2019we haven\u2019t had that option here since nineteen thirty-three.\u2019<\/p>\n

And still those voices are calling from far away.<\/p>\n

Wake you up in the middle of the night<\/p>\n

just to hear them say…<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Welcome to the hotel Small P-Value.<\/p>\n

Such a lovely place,<\/p>\n

for ongoing disgrace.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re livin\u2019 it up at the hotel Small P-Value;<\/p>\n

point oh-5 – what a nice surprise.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Likelihoods on the ceiling,<\/p>\n

Sample spaces that are nice<\/p>\n

And she said \u2019we all just prisoners here, of our own tail device.\u2019<\/p>\n

And in the Bayesian chambers,<\/p>\n

They gathered for the feast.<\/p>\n

They stab nulls with their MCMC knives,<\/p>\n

But they just can\u2019t kill the beast.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Last thing I remember,<\/p>\n

I was running from a prior.<\/p>\n

I had to find the method back<\/p>\n

to the place I was before.<\/p>\n

\u2019Relax,\u2019 said Dr. Deming,<\/p>\n

We are predisposed to discern.<\/p>\n

You can have P-values any time you like,<\/p>\n

But they\u2019ll never help you learn!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– \u00a0by\u00a0Kenneth P. Burnham (August 28, 2007)<\/em>\u00a0based on The Eagles – Hotel California<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/h4>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”black”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_icon type=”entypo” color=”black” size=”xl” align=”center” css_animation=”appear”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator color=”black”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text] MODELVILLE\u00a0 Scratch\u2019n out likelihoods, watchin\u2019 inferences fail; All of those parameters not backed up by data. Programming models while swilling 90 schilling. Smell those assumptions– They’re beginnin’ to spoil.   Wasted away again in Modelville, Searchin’ for a last bit of data. Some people claim that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-142","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142"}],"version-history":[{"count":25,"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":169,"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/142\/revisions\/169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sites.warnercnr.colostate.edu\/kenburnham\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}